Cyprus votes in a presidential election Sunday with incumbent Nicos Anastasiades ahead as he pledges a fresh push to reunify the divided island after talks collapsed last year, ending a conflict that harms Greco-Turkish relations and frustrates Ankara's ambitions of joining the European Union.
Following a low-key campaign in the European Union's most easterly member, polls put the conservative in the lead as he claims credit for an economic recovery from a debilitating crisis in 2013.
But Anastasiades, 71, looks unlikely to win the first round outright.
He is expected to face a February 4 run-off against either communist AKEL-backed Stavros Malas or Nikolas Papadopoulos, son of the late President Tassos Papadopoulos who led Greek Cypriots into rejecting a United Nations unification blueprint in 2004.
Apathy among the roughly 550,000 registered voters appears high and opponents have failed to land a major blow to the former lawyer as he seeks a second five-year term.
There is set to be intense horse-trading if the first round is not decisive and a backroom deal could still thwart Anastasiades.
"He is the likely winner according to the polls," analyst Christophoros Christophorou told AFP.
"But we need to see what alliances are formed for a second round."
Reunification prospects
As always, the nearly 44-year division of the island between the Greek Cypriot Administration, internationally recognized as the Republic of Cyprus, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus looms large.
Cyprus was split in a Turkish military intervention in 1974 after a brief Greek-inspired coup, and the EU member state hosts one of the world's longest-serving peacekeeping forces with Greek Cypriots in the south and Turkish Cypriots in the north.
In July, two years of UN-backed talks between Anastasiades and Turkish Cypriot President Mustafa Akıncı came closer than ever to reunifying the island but collapsed in acrimony before a deal.
Despite the failure to bridge key issues, including the future of Turkish troops in the north, Anastasiades insists he wants talks with Akıncı to restart soon.
But there is deep skepticism over whether there is the political will to make a breakthrough.
At the only televised debate before the vote, opponents laid into Anastasiades for being either too pliant or not determined enough to reach a deal last year.
Signs are that the road to reunification will only get tougher as fatigue mounts after decades of failure.
Ultra-nationalist party ELAM - fiercely opposed to the proposed reunification -- is fielding a candidate for the first time.
In the north, parliamentary elections this month saw parties opposed to reunification perform strongly.
While the "national problem" is ever present, this time around the economy has been a dominant issue.
"The economy has featured more than the Cyprus problem in this campaign," Fiona Mullen, director of Nicosia-based Sapienta Economics, told AFP.
When Anastasiades took over, the banking sector was in meltdown and he took a 10-billion-euro (more than $12-billion) bailout that entailed biting austerity measures.
That included a drastic haircut on accounts of over 100,000 euros held in the country's biggest lender, Bank of Cyprus.
Since then the economy has rebounded faster than much expected and growth has been steady since 2015.
Tourism reached a record high last year and explorations are going on for oil and gas offshore.
But the economy is still smaller than it was before the crisis, unemployment is around 11 percent and banks are awash with bad loans.
"The recovery is relative," Mullen said.
Polls open at 0500 GMT and close at 1600 GMT with final results expected late Sunday.
